Solar expert Radovan Kopeček sees Back Contact reaching 1 TW by 2030, with a key market shift by 2027/28

Header picture: Radovan Kopecek, Managing Director Advanced Cell Concepts, ISC Konstanz (c) ISC Konstanz

From the LONGi-series "BC Technology explained"

Back contact (BC) solar modules are set to become the defining technology of the next decade. In an interview with PV Magazine Australia, Radovan Kopeček, co-founder of ISC Konstanz, explained that global back contact manufacturing capacity could reach up to 1 TW by 2030. He said that the year 2028 would be pivotal, since key patents for the technology would expire then.

Kopeček pointed out that BC would gradually replace modules with both-sided contacts such as TOPCon. He mentioned that shipment announcements from leading manufacturers, including LONGi and Aiko, would already indicate this trend, and that a decisive market shift by 2027 or 2028 would be possible.

Transition and technology mix will lead to adoption of bifacial BC modules

He stated that the PV sector would likely move from pure TOPCon designs to hybrid solutions that combine passivating contacts with BC principles. In the long run, the most logical path would be the adoption of bifacial BC modules, particularly for utility-scale applications. He argued that BC designs would also ease the implementation of alternative metallisation approaches, such as copper or aluminium.

BC to achieve nearly the same bifacial factor as TOPCon

Kopeček said that the industrial uptake of BC would rely on faster laser processes and affordable p-plus poly layers, which could be available within two years and would improve both costs and performance. He noted that in-situ doping of p-plus poly via PECVD had already advanced, allowing higher throughput, and he expected ongoing progress to overcome the complexity of boron-based layers.

Kopeček remarked that single-junction silicon cells are now approaching their physical efficiency limit, with cell values near 27 % and modules close to 26 %. He underlined that BC could achieve nearly the same bifacial factor as TOPCon, contradicting earlier concerns that BC would be less suitable in this regard.

At present, BC module production capacity is estimated at roughly 50 GW. Kopecek assumed that this figure could rise sharply, reaching 1 TW by 2030. By 2028, he foresaw a global market balance of about 50:50 between BC and TOPCon. He expected China to lead the transition, followed by India, while the United States would probably move more slowly.

BC and Tandem technologies to be coupled

Looking forward, he suggested that BC would play a role in tandem solar cells, although large-scale commercialisation might not occur until the mid-2030s according to Kopeček. He also anticipated that standardisation across different BC variants could be achieved around 2026, enabling the industry to converge on common practices and terminology.

Finally, Kopecek stressed that many of the most relevant patents for BC would expire in 2028. He considered this milestone decisive, as it would allow manufacturers worldwide to produce BC modules without licensing constraints and could accelerate capacity expansion.

The full interview is available at PV Magazine Australia.